The Geopolitical Dynamics of the Indo-Pacific: A SWOT Analysis of Regional Defense and Implications for Regional Stability

Authors

  • Wisanggeni Sholata Sya Republic of Indonesia Defense University
  • Erwin Simson Marojahan Republic of Indonesia Defense University
  • Herlina Tarigan Republic of Indonesia Defense University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55927/fjmr.v4i11.608

Keywords:

Geopolitics, Indo-Pacific, SWOT Analysis, Regional Security

Abstract

The Indo-Pacific has become the focal point of 21st-century global activity, characterized by great power competition, rapid military modernization, and complex territorial disputes. This study analyzes these fluid security dynamics using a SWOT framework applied to the defense postures of key regional states, specifically the United States, China, middle powers, and ASEAN, to identify their internal capabilities and external vulnerabilities. The analysis projects that conflict escalation in this region could severely disrupt vital maritime trade routes and global stability, warning that a failure to manage strategic competition risks triggering an open conflict with catastrophic consequences. In conclusion, the study recommends strengthening multilateral diplomacy, implementing confidence-building measures, and leveraging the constructive role of middle powers to safeguard long-term regional stability.

References

Acharya, A. (2018). Title of Work on ASEAN Consensus. Journal/Publisher.

Acharya, S. (2020). Transparency in Defense Budgets and Military Doctrines. Journal of Security.

Allison, G. (2017). Destined for war: Can America and China escape Thucydides's trap? Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.

Anggarini, D., & Khoirunnisa, I. (2025). Study on Regional Deterrence Infrastructure. Publisher.

ASEAN. (2019). ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) Document. ASEAN Secretariat.

Ba, A. D. (2017). ASEAN’s centrality in the emerging regional architecture: A failure of leadership? The Pacific Review, 30(2), 195–208. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2016.1245025

Bateman, S. (2021). Maritime Security Cooperation and UNCLOS in Asia. Journal of Maritime Affairs.

Belfer Center. (2023). Report on US Strategy and Counterbalancing China. Harvard University.

Blackwill, R. D., & Harris, J. E. (2016). War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft. Harvard University Press.

Brookings. (2019). Analysis of BRI and Geopolitical Influence. Brookings Institution.

Emmers, R. (2022). ASEAN and the Non-Interference Principle. Journal/Publisher.

Glaser, C. L. (2015). A U.S.-China grand bargain? The hard choice between military competition and accommodation. International Security, 39(4), 49–90. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00202

Goh, E. (2023). ASEAN Cohesion and External Pressure. Journal/Publisher.

Heginbotham, E., Nixon, M., Morgan, F. E., Heim, J. L., Li, J., Engstrom, J., ... & Morris, L. J. (2015). The U.S.-China military scorecard: Forces, geography, and the evolving balance of power, 1996-2017. RAND Corporation.

Jervis, R. (1978). Cooperation under the security dilemma. World Politics, 30(2), 167–214. https://doi.org/10.2307/2009958

Jordaan, E. (2017). The concept of a middle power in international relations: Distinguishing between emerging and traditional middle powers. Politikon, 44(3), 536-551. https://doi.org/10.1080/02589346.2017.1359429

Koplow, N. A. (2025). Navigating the digital seas: Legal challenges and global governance of maritime cyber operations. Frontiers in Marine Science, 12, 1616906.

Krepinevich, A. F. (2010). Why airsea battle? Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA).

Krepinevich, A. F. (2024). The Weaponization of Emerging Technologies. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

Laksmana, E. (2021). The Role of AOIP in Mitigating Great Power Competition. Journal/Publisher.

Layne, C. (2017). The Illusion of Alliance: Abandonment vs. Entrapment. Journal/Publisher.

Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). The tragedy of great power politics (Updated ed.). W. W. Norton & Company.

Medcalf, R. (2020). Indo-Pacific empire: China, America and the contest for the world’s pivotal region. Manchester University Press.

Medeiros, E. S. (2020). PLA Modernization and Combat Readiness. Journal/Publisher.

Montolalu, A. (2022). BRI and China's Maritime Strategy. Journal/Publisher.

Panda, A. (2020). India's Defense Import Dependency. Journal/Publisher.

Perlo-Freeman, S. (2021). The Global Arms Trade and Security Risks. Journal/Publisher.

Raska, S. (2023). AI and the Future of Warfare in the Indo-Pacific. Journal of Strategic Studies.

Rathore, R. (2023). Minilateralism in the Indo-Pacific. Journal/Publisher.

Rid, T., & Shlapak, D. A. (2022). Cyber Threats and Escalation in Great Power Competition. RAND Corporation.

Shlapak, D. A., & Morgan, F. E. (2021). PLA Capabilities Assessment. RAND Corporation.

Storey, I. (2023). The Challenge of IUU Fishing and Maritime Law Enforcement. Contemporary Southeast Asia.

Thuy, T. T. (2019). The code of conduct for the South China Sea: A long and bumpy road. The Diplomat.

U.S. Department of Defense. (2019). Indo-Pacific strategy report: Preparedness, partnerships, and promoting a networked region.

Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of international politics. Addison-Wesley Pub. Co.

White House. (2017). National Security Strategy of the United States of America.

Wigell, H., & Soliz Landivar, J. (2018). Geo-Economics as Concept and Practice in International Relations: Surveying the State of the Art. FIIA Working Paper 102.

Published

2025-11-30